sensex last week and next week

The short-term tendency is down since the recent peak of 15,940. The downward setback from 15,545 last week reinforces the negative short-term view as does the 10-day ROC’s decline in to the negative zone. We maintain a neutral medium-term view with the possibility of a move between 13,000 and 16,000 for a few more weeks.

Decline below 14,244 will make the Sensex head towards the medium-term support zone between 13,000 and 13,200. Long-term investors however need not worry unless there is a weekly close below 13,000.

The week ahead promises to be uneven. The Sensex can decline to 14,741 or 14,244 in the near-term. Short-term investors can hold their long positions as long the index holds above the second support. The short-term trend will turn positive if there is a close above 15,600 in the early part of the week. Upward target would be 16,002, 16,179 and 16,421